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This post will teach you how to incorporate events that happen during your date into figuring out whether the date is going well and likely to lead to something more.We're interested in the probability of A, represented as P(A).But there is of course also a chance that the early stages of the date go well, even if there is no chemistry there — my date might be laughing at my jokes out of politeness, or perhaps enjoy my company platonically, without any other spark.We deal with this situation in the lower right corner of the equation.

Suppose that we are on a fairly standard first date — meeting up for drinks after work.

Suppose further that our initial conversation is going well.

We're laughing at each others' jokes, sharing stories of college misdeeds, and making copious eye contact.

One way to interpret this probability is as my degree of certainty, measured from 0% to 100%, that A is true — that my date is in fact into me.

We start with a "prior" probability — a baseline, without any particular evidence for or against the proposition, before the date begins, often based on historical observations.